New Maps, Old Fault Lines

The Middle East’s shifting landscape has captured international attention, but beneath the surface, ancient rivalries and interests persist. In recent weeks, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has been courting Israel in an effort to counter Iran’s growing influence. A joint defense fund was reportedly agreed upon during Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s secret visit to Abu Dhabi, which the UAE later denied took place.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is strengthening ties with Egypt, Turkey, and Pakistan – a bloc determined to keep a distance from the UAE-Israel axis. This development signals a significant shift in the region’s balance of power, as Gulf states’ deepening divisions over Yemen have been compounded by differing visions for regional order. The US and Israel’s war with Iran has exposed long-simmering fault lines between Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Middle East expert Kristian Coates Ulrichsen notes that regional players like Saudi Arabia have historically been pragmatic in their pursuit of national interests. The UAE’s recent moves may be seen as a bid to assert its influence and secure resources, but they also underscore the limitations of any single country’s ability to shape the region.

The Gulf’s Complex Web

The UAE-Israel axis has been touted as a bold new initiative aimed at reshaping the Middle East. However, this narrative glosses over the intricacies of regional politics. Israel’s military capabilities and technological prowess may be attractive to the UAE, but they also raise concerns about the implications for Arab states.

Prince Turki al-Faisal’s recent op-ed in Asharq Al-Awsat highlights Saudi Arabia’s growing unease with Israeli actions. The prince warns that an Israeli-Iranian conflict could plunge the region into chaos and destabilize global energy markets. This anxiety reflects a broader recognition among Gulf states that their interests are intertwined, but not identical.

Transactional Politics

The “Sunni diamond” bloc comprising Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey, and Pakistan is often portrayed as a cohesive entity. However, its members’ approaches to regional security are far from uniform. The UAE has been willing to take risks in pursuit of its goals, while Saudi Arabia’s focus on stability and economic development has led it to adopt a more transactional approach.

This grouping seeks to address common concerns – such as Iran’s growing influence – through pragmatic cooperation rather than ideological alignment. Saudi Arabia’s desire for regional security is rooted in its need for economic stability, threatened by the ongoing conflict in Yemen and the war with Houthi rebels.

A New Era of Geopolitics?

The Gulf states’ diverging paths are often framed as a response to the US-Israel-Iran axis. However, this narrative overlooks the complexities of regional politics. As Schneider observes, we are living in an era of “geopolitical promiscuity,” where alignments are fluid and temporary.

This shift away from rigid alliances reflects a growing recognition among Gulf states that their interests must be protected through flexible and adaptable relationships. The UAE’s bid to deepen ties with Israel may be seen as a bold move, but it also underscores the limitations of any single country’s ability to shape regional outcomes.

The region’s history has shown us time and again that stability can only be achieved through a delicate balance of competing interests and alliances. As the UAE-Israel axis deepens, Saudi Arabia’s growing unease with Israeli actions will undoubtedly continue to shape regional dynamics. The stakes are high, and the consequences of miscalculation could be disastrous.

In this new era of geopolitical promiscuity, one thing is certain: the Middle East’s fault lines are still simmering, waiting to erupt into conflict once more.